The EU’s emergency gas plan comes into effect; UK retail sales grow in ‘lull before storm’ – business live | Business

Crude oil prices have dipped, as traders are factoring in the chance that Iran could boost supply, as last-minute talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear accord are under way which would allow the country to resume crude exports.

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A revival of the accord is expected to lead to a sharper drop in oil prices, analysts said.

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Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.94 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate declined by a similar amount to $90.07 a barrel.

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Analysts at ANZ bank said:

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The spectre of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to hover over the market.

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Last night, the EU tabled a “final” text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which needs to be approved by Washington and Tehran. A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within “very, very few weeks”.

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Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said:

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While the details around the timing of of the resumption of Iran’s oil exports remain uncertain even if the accord is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly.

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He said Iran could raise its oil exports by 1m to 1.5m barrels per day, or up to 1.5% of global supply, in six months.

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A revival of the 2015 nuclear accord will likely see oil prices fall sharply given that markets probably don’t believe a deal will be reached.

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The oil market has been knocked by global recession fears, with Brent crude suffering its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. However, since then prices have been underpinned somewhat by stronger-than-expected export figures from China and the surprise pick-up in US jobs growth in July, which suggest demand for crude could hold up.

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prices dip on potential resumption of Iran exports”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 9 Aug 2022 08.06 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 9 Aug 2022 07.46 BST”},{“id”:”62f164378f08b2ca242c7a19″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

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The European Union’s gas emergency plan has come into effect today, asking countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian cut-off. The reductions could become mandatory in a supply emergency, albeit with opt-outs for some countries and industries.

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The head of Germany’s network regulator welcomed the plan, and said it could stabilise or even lower gas prices. Klaus Müller, head of Bundesnetzagentur, told the ZDF broadcaster:

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If all countries in Europe save gas, this can stabilise the price so to speak, maybe even reduce it, and contribute to making sure that there is enough gas supply for us to make it through the autumn and winter.

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Retail sales in the UK rose 2.3% last month, as the heatwave boosted sales of summer clothing, picnic treats and electric fans despite the intensifying cost of living crisis.

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Experts said it could be the “lull before the storm,” with the Bank of England predicting a recession lasting longer than a year and inflation rising above 13.3%.

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The latest monthly survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a 2.3% sales rise in July compared with a 6.4% rise the year before. But the sales growth was largely caused by inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4%, and masked a larger drop in the number of items sold.

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Retail sales have held up as people have been splashing out on summer clothes amid warm weather as well as wedding outfits, enjoying the opportunity to go on holiday and to family events that had been delayed by the pandemic.

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However, Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at the advisory firm KPMG, said:

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The summer could be the lull before the storm with conditions set to get tougher as consumers arrive back from summer breaks to holiday credit card bills, another energy price hike and rising interest rates. With stronger cost of living headwinds on the horizon, consumers will have to prioritise essentials, and discretionary product spending will come under pressure.

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Consumers are determined to enjoy delayed holidays and an unrestricted summer. Pent up demand, especially for new clothes, has so far been at significant enough levels to keep the overall retail sector in relatively good health.

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The boss of John Lewis said this morning that she has “never seen anything quite like” the country’s current economic situation throughout her entire career.

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Dame Sharon White, the chair of the department store chain and a former Treasury civil servant, urged the next government to encourage people in their 50s to return to work after retiring during the pandemic.

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She told BBC radio 4’s Today programme that with “one million fewer people in work or looking for work,” higher inflation was inevitable.

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Regardless of what has happened coming out of Covid, if the labour market is that tight, if we continue to have far fewer people in work, looking for work – you’ve inevitably got more inflation and more wage inflation.

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I guess I would encourage…any government to really think much more about how to we encourage more people back into work.

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There’s not a business in the UK that’s not finding it very difficult to recruit at the moment because there are so many more jobs and so far fewer people looking for work. It’s a big issue.

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The Agenda

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  • 11am BST: Ireland Industrial production for June
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  • 12pm BST: Mexico inflation for July (forecast: 8.13%)
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  • 1pm BST: Brazil inflation for July (forecast: 10.1%)
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Key events

Crude oil prices have dipped, as traders are factoring in the chance that Iran could boost supply, as last-minute talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear accord are under way which would allow the country to resume crude exports.

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A revival of the accord is expected to lead to a sharper drop in oil prices, analysts said.

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Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.94 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate declined by a similar amount to $90.07 a barrel.

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Analysts at ANZ bank said:

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The spectre of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to hover over the market.

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Last night, the EU tabled a “final” text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which needs to be approved by Washington and Tehran. A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within “very, very few weeks”.

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Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said:

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While the details around the timing of of the resumption of Iran’s oil exports remain uncertain even if the accord is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly.

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He said Iran could raise its oil exports by 1m to 1.5m barrels per day, or up to 1.5% of global supply, in six months.

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A revival of the 2015 nuclear accord will likely see oil prices fall sharply given that markets probably don’t believe a deal will be reached.

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The oil market has been knocked by global recession fears, with Brent crude suffering its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. However, since then prices have been underpinned somewhat by stronger-than-expected export figures from China and the surprise pick-up in US jobs growth in July, which suggest demand for crude could hold up.

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prices dip on potential resumption of Iran exports”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 9 Aug 2022 08.06 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 9 Aug 2022 07.46 BST”},{“id”:”62f164378f08b2ca242c7a19″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

“,”elementId”:”f8ef167e-5917-4b89-8e4e-9332f2cddebc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The European Union’s gas emergency plan has come into effect today, asking countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian cut-off. The reductions could become mandatory in a supply emergency, albeit with opt-outs for some countries and industries.

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The head of Germany’s network regulator welcomed the plan, and said it could stabilise or even lower gas prices. Klaus Müller, head of Bundesnetzagentur, told the ZDF broadcaster:

“,”elementId”:”7161bf3e-117a-4a08-9758-a051d49f1069″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

\n

If all countries in Europe save gas, this can stabilise the price so to speak, maybe even reduce it, and contribute to making sure that there is enough gas supply for us to make it through the autumn and winter.

\n

“,”elementId”:”fa0dd2fe-b591-43ef-8bcb-78c7c7e6129d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Retail sales in the UK rose 2.3% last month, as the heatwave boosted sales of summer clothing, picnic treats and electric fans despite the intensifying cost of living crisis.

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Experts said it could be the “lull before the storm,” with the Bank of England predicting a recession lasting longer than a year and inflation rising above 13.3%.

“,”elementId”:”82bdd44f-9bad-4e74-8e1d-e34374418196″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The latest monthly survey from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a 2.3% sales rise in July compared with a 6.4% rise the year before. But the sales growth was largely caused by inflation, which is running at a 40-year high of 9.4%, and masked a larger drop in the number of items sold.

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Retail sales have held up as people have been splashing out on summer clothes amid warm weather as well as wedding outfits, enjoying the opportunity to go on holiday and to family events that had been delayed by the pandemic.

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However, Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at the advisory firm KPMG, said:

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\n

The summer could be the lull before the storm with conditions set to get tougher as consumers arrive back from summer breaks to holiday credit card bills, another energy price hike and rising interest rates. With stronger cost of living headwinds on the horizon, consumers will have to prioritise essentials, and discretionary product spending will come under pressure.

\n

Consumers are determined to enjoy delayed holidays and an unrestricted summer. Pent up demand, especially for new clothes, has so far been at significant enough levels to keep the overall retail sector in relatively good health.

\n

“,”elementId”:”775e3026-e123-4cde-a76a-18f11940630a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/09/july-could-be-lull-before-the-storm-for-retailers-and-consumers”,”text”:”July could be ‘lull before the storm’ for retailers and consumers “,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”72b21783-d337-4f11-a6c1-f56d2db234f4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The boss of John Lewis said this morning that she has “never seen anything quite like” the country’s current economic situation throughout her entire career.

“,”elementId”:”28e13a88-8b8d-4e1c-87a4-b08d3a75d487″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Dame Sharon White, the chair of the department store chain and a former Treasury civil servant, urged the next government to encourage people in their 50s to return to work after retiring during the pandemic.

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She told BBC radio 4’s Today programme that with “one million fewer people in work or looking for work,” higher inflation was inevitable.

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\n

Regardless of what has happened coming out of Covid, if the labour market is that tight, if we continue to have far fewer people in work, looking for work – you’ve inevitably got more inflation and more wage inflation.

\n

I guess I would encourage…any government to really think much more about how to we encourage more people back into work.

\n

There’s not a business in the UK that’s not finding it very difficult to recruit at the moment because there are so many more jobs and so far fewer people looking for work. It’s a big issue.

\n

“,”elementId”:”a7b18a7b-2dcd-493c-8c97-930490e58251″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Agenda

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    \n

  • 11am BST: Ireland Industrial production for June
  • \n

  • 12pm BST: Mexico inflation for July (forecast: 8.13%)
  • \n

  • 1pm BST: Brazil inflation for July (forecast: 10.1%)
  • \n

“,”elementId”:”774960c4-07b2-4c4e-aeed-4f74bab73cb3″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1660027561000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.46 BST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1660027643000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.47 BST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1660027561000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.46 BST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.46″,”title”:”Introduction: EU emergency gas plan takes effect; UK retail sales grow in ‘lull before storm'”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 9 Aug 2022 08.06 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 9 Aug 2022 07.46 BST”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”}”>

Filters BETA

Oil prices fall after potential resumption of Iran’s exports

Crude oil prices have fallen as traders consider the chance that Iran could boost supply as last-minute talks are underway to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal that would allow it to resume crude exports.

A revival of the deal is expected to lead to a sharper drop in oil prices, analysts said.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 71 cents, or 0.7%, to $95.94 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate fell a similar amount to $90.07 a barrel.

Analysts at ANZ bank said:

The specter of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to hover over the market.

Last night, the EU presented a “final” text to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which must be approved by Washington and Tehran. A senior EU official said a final decision on the proposal was expected within “a very, very few weeks”.

Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said:

While the details of the timing of the resumption of Iran’s oil exports remain uncertain even if the deal is revived, there is certainly scope for Iran to increase oil exports relatively quickly.

He said Iran could increase its oil exports by 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, or up to 1.5% of global supply, within six months.

A revival of the 2015 nuclear deal is likely to cause oil prices to fall sharply given that markets are unlikely to believe a deal will be reached.

The oil market has been battered by fears of a global recession, with Brent crude suffering its biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week. Since then, however, prices have been supported somewhat by stronger-than-expected export figures from China and the surprise increase in US job growth in July, suggesting that demand for crude oil may hold up.

Dust engulfs the skyline of Tehran, Iran.
Dust engulfs the skyline of Tehran, Iran. Photo: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

Introduction: The EU’s emergency gas plan comes into force; Retail sales in the UK grow in the “lull before storm”

Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.

The European Union’s gas contingency plan came into effect today, calling on countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% this winter to prepare for a potential full Russian border. The reductions may become mandatory in an emergency, albeit with opt-outs for certain countries and industries.

The head of Germany’s grid regulator welcomed the plan, saying it could stabilize or even lower gas prices. Klaus Müller, head of the Bundesnetzagentur, told the ZDF broadcaster:

If all countries in Europe save gas, this could stabilize the price, so to speak, perhaps even reduce it, and help ensure that there is enough gas supply to see us through the autumn and winter.

UK retail sales rose 2.3% last month as the heat wave boosted sales of summer clothes, picnic treats and electric fans despite the growing cost of living crisis.

Experts said it could be the “lull before the storm”, with the Bank of England predicting a recession lasting longer than a year and inflation rising above 13.3%.

The latest monthly survey by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed sales growth of 2.3% in July compared to a 6.4% increase the previous year. But the sales growth was largely driven by inflation, which is at a 40-year high of 9.4%, masking a larger drop in the number of goods sold.

Retail sales have held up as people splash out on warm-weather summer wear, as well as wedding attire, and enjoy the opportunity to go on vacations and family events that have been delayed by the pandemic.

However, Paul Martin, the UK head of retail at advisory firm KPMG, said:

Summer could be the lull before the storm with conditions set to get tougher as consumers return from summer vacation to holiday credit card bills, another energy price hike and rising interest rates. With stronger cost of living headwinds on the horizon, consumers will have to prioritize the essentials, and discretionary product spending will come under pressure.

Consumers are determined to enjoy delayed holidays and an unlimited summer. So far, pent-up demand, particularly for new clothing, has been at significant enough levels to keep the overall retail trade in relatively good health.

The boss of John Lewis said this morning that she had “never seen anything like” the country’s current economic situation throughout her career.

Dame Sharon White, the chairwoman of the department store chain and a former civil servant in the Treasury, called on the next government to encourage people in their 50s to return to work after retiring during the pandemic.

She told BBC radio 4’s Today program that with “a million fewer people in work or looking for work” higher inflation was inevitable.

Whatever has happened post-Covid, if the labor market is this tight, if we continue to have far fewer people in work looking for work – you’ve inevitably got more inflation and more wage growth.

I guess I would encourage … any government to really think a lot more about how we can encourage more people back into work.

There isn’t a business in the UK that isn’t finding it very difficult to recruit at the moment because there are so many more jobs and so far fewer people looking for work. It’s a big problem.

The agenda

  • 11am BST: Ireland Industrial Production for June
  • 12:00 BST: Mexico inflation for July (forecast: 8.13%)
  • 13:00 BST: Brazil inflation for July (forecast: 10.1%)

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